Autonomous · BTC and ETH · daily candles · live trading on your own exchange account, in preparation
No trade is the default.
PaperBot is a crypto trading system built to preserve capital first, avoid liquidation second, and return something third. It sizes every position by risk, refuses more trades than it takes, and writes every refusal down. Its public record runs on live Binance prices today, and you can watch it decide. Live trading on your own Binance, OKX or Bybit account is in preparation.
No return claims here, ever. The record below is a paper account; the day the first live account opens, this page says so first. What is ready, and what is not yet.
The live record Paper account
Everything it has done, and everything it declined to do.
The same numbers the operator sees, read from the bot's own event log. Equity is a curve and a number among others, never a return. Where the log is silent, so is this page.
Equity Paper account
Show as a table
Why it traded, or did not
Latest decisions, newest firstHow a decision happens
Five steps between a candle closing and a paper order, and a written reason at every one.
A candle closes
Only closed daily candles count. A look-ahead check runs in the build, so a feature can never see a price that has not happened yet.
The trend is tested
Long when the 30-day and 90-day returns agree upward, flat otherwise. One deterministic rule, the same in replay and live.
Risk sets the size
The smallest of six terms: 0.25% of equity at risk, a volatility target, a daily loss budget, a Kelly cap, a notional cap and the order book's depth. Then every throttle for drawdown and loss windows.
Nine checks must all pass
Post-fill safety state, open risk, caps, depth, spread, funding, no alert anywhere, no cooling window, above the venue minimum. One failure and the trade is refused, with the numbers.
The order is placed and logged
Today it fills against the live Binance book after a modelled delay, with fees, slippage and funding charged. On a live account it goes to your exchange with a resident stop beside it. Every step is in an append-only log that replays to the same state.
Nine things it will never do
Each of these is a test that fails the build.
Most retail bots sell at least one of them. These are written into the approved parameter set as forbidden behaviours, and a named test proves the code cannot do each one.
Double down after a lossNo martingale, no recovery sizing. A loss changes nothing about the next size except to make it smaller.martingale_or_recovery_sizingAverage down without a planScaling in is allowed only along a ladder declared before the first entry, with a hard cap.averaging_down_beyond_pre_declared_entry_ladderRun a grid or DCA with no ceilingAny grid or dollar-cost plan needs a hard total notional cap or it does not run.grid_or_dca_without_hard_total_notional_capRe-enter right after a stop-outA four-hour cooling window in the same symbol. The revenge-trading guard.re_entry_within_cooling_window_after_stop_outRaise leverage on an open positionLeverage is set before entry and can only fall while a position is open.leverage_increase_on_open_positionRisk more while in drawdownSize scales down with drawdown and never up. A review halt at 10%.risk_per_trade_increase_while_in_drawdownEstimate its own edge liveThe Kelly cap uses an assumed edge fixed in the parameters, never one fitted to recent wins.live_estimation_of_kelly_numeratorUse cross marginIsolated margin only, so one position's loss can never reach another's collateral.cross_margin_in_pilotPost volatile collateralStablecoin collateral only. Never wrapped or yield-bearing tokens.non_stablecoin_collateral
Six layers between a signal and a loss
Each layer is true when the one before it has failed.
Position leverage at most 2× isolated on BTC and ETH, per-asset notional caps, gross exposure at most 1×, stablecoin collateral only. The worst day in Bitcoin's recorded history does not reach liquidation at these limits.
A reduce-only stop at the planned exit on mark price, a second catastrophe stop at twice the distance, and the exchange's own dead-man's switch so resting entries vanish when the bot dies.
Signal reversal, trailing exits, time stops, and exits on volatility doubling, depth collapse or funding cost. These fire well before the resident stops.
A GREEN → YELLOW → ORANGE → RED → BLACK state machine on liquidation distance, margin ratio, tier changes, ADL rank and market stress. It can only reduce exposure, whatever the strategy thinks. Sensors that need a real account are shown greyed, not assumed clear.
Nine checks before any order, daily, weekly and monthly loss limits, a market-wide circuit breaker on a 5% BTC hourly move, and no-trade windows around exchange maintenance.
An independent watchdog that flattens the book if the heartbeat stops for 90 seconds, reconciliation on every restart and every minute, a persisted kill switch only a person can clear, and alerts by message and e-mail.
What is ready, and what is not yet
This page will never show you a return figure. Here is what it shows instead.
The record is a paper account
Fills are simulated against the live order book after a modelled delay, pessimistically. It proves the machine, not a profit. The first live account gets its own label the day it opens.
It has no proven edge yet
The strategy is one deterministic trend rule, chosen for being simple and honest, not for being clever. The rigorous backtest standard it must pass has not run yet. If no rule passes it, the project stops there. That is written into the plan.
It can stop
The road to real money has four places where the plan says stop, not proceed. A stage that makes money and hides a defect is worse than one that loses a little and surfaces it.
Plans
Start by watching. Pay only for what is actually ready.
Pricing goes to the waitlist first. Each plan opens only when the stage behind it is done, and the roadmap below says which stage that is.
Watch free · now
- The live record on this page
- Every decision and refusal, with reasons
- A weekly e-mail of what happened and why
No account needed.
Paper next
- Your own paper bot on our infrastructure
- Your symbols and starting equity
- Alerts, monthly statements, "why it did not trade"
- Read-only API
Opens after the current soak completes.
Guard later
- Everything in Paper
- A read-only connection to your Binance, OKX or Bybit account
- The safety engine watches your real positions: liquidation distance, funding drag, ADL rank
- Alerts at YELLOW, ORANGE and RED
Read-only keys. It never places an order.
Trade in preparation
- Live execution on your own Binance, OKX or Bybit account with the approved parameter set
- Trade-only keys, withdrawals disabled, IP-bound
- Your own kill switch and watchdog
Opens after the live pilot, and only where the law allows it. Your money stays on your exchange.
The road to real money
Slow on purpose. Every stage has a gate, and some gates say stop.
Event log, data layer, risk engine, paper broker, safety engine, strategy, dashboard. 829 tests. Nine forbidden behaviours each with a failing test.
21 days of continuous paper trading on the live market, checked daily, recomputed by hand weekly.
Zero paper liquidations in the final 14 days, every restart reconciles clean, replay matches live.Purged k-fold with embargo, deflated Sharpe, cost sensitivity at twice the fees, seven stress replays.
At least one rule passes in full. If none does, the project stops here.The first exchange key. Exchange-resident stops, private streams, real rate limits, every sensor the paper stage could not see.
All 28 failure-injection tests pass. Weekly host-kill drill passes twice.Spot only, long or flat. Expected result: roughly flat. The product of this stage is a proven system, not a return.
30 trades, slippage within model, drawdown under 5%, no failure caused by our code.Perpetuals at 1× isolated, then up to 2×. The configuration the whole research phase was built around.
Never scale up within 30 days of a drawdown over 5%. Never add capital to make back a loss.Waitlist
Be there when the first plan opens.
One e-mail when a plan opens, and the weekly record if you want it. No marketing sequence. Tell us which exchange you use so we build the connection you need first.